Research & Strategy for the Social Economy

The Financial Forest

Analysis of 1,248 organizations across ten U.S. markets reveals seven financial archetypes. The data shows that sustainability follows different rules for different business models.

Foundation, bank, or institutional funder? See how funders work with the research →

What The Data Reveals

Conventional nonprofit wisdom doesn't hold up to scrutiny

0.008
Diversification Correlation

Revenue diversification shows minimal correlation with organizational success. Revenue stability, not variety, predicts health.

3 in 4
Don't Meet Expectations

Measured against standard funder criteria, three in four nonprofits fall short of thriving — but what drives success varies by archetype.

7
Financial Archetypes

Distinct patterns emerged when organizations were grouped by financial characteristics rather than mission.

"Diversify your revenue." "Keep 3-6 months reserves." "Overhead under 15%." These mantras get repeated in boardrooms, but nobody was checking whether they could predict organizational success.

The Seven Archetypes

Financial health follows different rules for different business models

When grouped by financial characteristics rather than mission, seven distinct patterns emerge. Each archetype faces different risks, operates under different physics, and requires different evaluation criteria.

Pioneer Pine
Pioneer Pine
Donation-dependent startups
Gambel Oak
Gambel Oak
Revenue generalists
Quaking Aspen
Quaking Aspen
The in-kind economy
Serviceberry
Serviceberry
Boutique service providers
Plains Cottonwood
Plains Cottonwood
Government contractors
Peachleaf Willow
Peachleaf Willow
Large-scale service providers
Rocky Mountain Juniper
Rocky Mountain Juniper
The Capital-Intensive Organizations

Bearings by The Financial Forest

The framework, instrumented.

We supply the distribution. The advisor supplies the diagnosis. Bearings turns the seven-archetype framework into a working benchmarking instrument: peer comparison curves, not scores or traffic lights, so the professional judgment stays with the person reading the data.

Currently onboarding fractional CFOs, accounting firm leaders, and funders through the Advisory Panel while general availability is built out.

A single organization A board-ready benchmark for your own organization, no portfolio required.
A portfolio of clients Fractional CFOs and accounting firm leaders comparing multiple clients against the same peer curves.
A funder's grantee population Archetype distribution across a portfolio, benchmarked against the broader dataset.

What I Do

One body of research, three ways to put it to work

Research

Original analysis of 1,248 nonprofits across ten markets, organized into seven financial archetypes drawn from how organizations actually operate. The findings are open to explore, and the agenda is open to help shape.

Explore the research →

Tools & Education

Bearings turns the research into a benchmarking instrument practitioners use directly. Orientations and collaborative workshops bring the framework to leaders and their teams. Both exist to help others do more elevated, better-grounded work.

See tools and education →

Advisory & Project Work

Direct engagements for organizations and funders in market feasibility, fundraising and grantmaking strategy, and impact storytelling. Strategic advisory through The Financial Forest, and bespoke project work through Segura Strategy Group.

See advisory and project work →
1,248
Organizations
Analyzed
10
U.S. Markets
Studied
81
Financial Metrics
Per Organization
10+
Years Nonprofit
Leadership

Research grounded in operational reality

This analysis combines MBA-level financial rigor with over a decade of nonprofit leadership experience, including managing the full pilot program life cycle, analytics, operations, outcomes measurement, and senior leadership.

The methodology employs k-means clustering and statistical analysis while maintaining accessibility for nonprofit practitioners and funders alike.

About the research →
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Get the Field Guide

"This project resonated with me because it reframes financial health as a systems issue. The archetype model offers leaders a language for diagnosing structural patterns that often go unnamed. It's rare to see financial analysis translated into something this practical, assessable, and actionable. The tool makes it even more powerful by moving from awareness to insight in minutes." — Amber Ptak, CEO, ChangeLine
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