Key Findings

What the data reveals about nonprofit financial health

No link
Diversification and growth

Across 1,648 organizations, how concentrated an organization's revenue is shows no measurable relationship with how fast it grows (r = 0.012, not statistically significant). Breadth of funding is not what separates the organizations that grow from the ones that do not.

41%
Stress rate

41% of organizations across twelve markets show at least one root rot stress indicator. Which conditions drive that stress, and what recovery looks like, differs by archetype.

12 for 12
Markets validated

The same seven archetypes emerged independently across all twelve U.S. markets. These are structural patterns, not artifacts of a single local ecosystem.

Methodology

How the research was built

Primary source research derived from public IRS Form 990 data, not a consulting framework or prescriptive methodology.

The Dataset

1,648 organizations
across 12 markets

Three fiscal years of IRS Form 990 filings: 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Albuquerque · Anchorage · Augusta · Boise · Colorado Springs · Dayton · Honolulu · Huntsville · Knoxville · Melbourne, FL · Spokane · Tucson

The Method

Cluster analysis
7 archetypes

The same seven clusters emerged independently across all twelve markets: structural patterns, not regional artifacts.

Stress Classification

Root Rot flags
any one = Stressed

Under the current four-condition definition, 40.8% of organizations carry at least one. Stress is classified by structural signals, not by archetype membership, and describes the window measured rather than forecasting what comes next.

Insolvency risk · Relevance decline · Margin spiral · Structural deficit

Archetype is not destiny. It is context. Every archetype holds organizations across the full range of financial health, with its own characteristic challenges and its own opportunities. Success depends on understanding and navigating archetype-specific vulnerabilities rather than which category you belong to.

Financial Forest Field Guide Preview
"
I completely feel like this addresses the challenges of every nonprofit organization and fundraising/leadership employee. You address actual problems, and I found it relieving to actually read what you had to say and relate it to what I was feeling for the many years I spent in development/fundraising. You spoke to me!

— Stacy Poore

Owner, Bread and Butter Neighborhood Market
formerly Chief Development Officer & Chief Operating Officer, Care and Share Food Bank for Southern Colorado

See the method applied to one metro, in full

The Field Guide is the complete research methodology, detailed archetype profiles, and strategic frameworks worked through for a single market: El Paso County, Colorado. If you want the seven archetypes without the metro-specific detail, start with the free Primer instead.

The Seven Archetypes

Select an archetype to explore its characteristics, performance patterns, and what distinguishes thrivers from those who struggle.

Download the one-page quick reference (PDF) →

Pioneer Pine watercolor illustration: donor-dependent early-stage organizations
Pioneer Pine
320 organizations
Gambel Oak watercolor illustration: mature diversified generalists
Gambel Oak
390 organizations
Quaking Aspen watercolor illustration: in-kind and material aid organizations
Quaking Aspen
56 organizations
Serviceberry watercolor illustration: fee-for-service program-revenue organizations
Serviceberry
331 organizations
Plains Cottonwood watercolor illustration: government-contract dependent organizations
Plains Cottonwood
235 organizations
Peachleaf Willow watercolor illustration: large earned-income organizations
Peachleaf Willow
59 organizations
Rocky Mountain Juniper watercolor illustration: property-rich community-rooted organizations
Rocky Mountain Juniper
257 organizations

Select an archetype above to explore

Click any tree to view detailed analysis, performance patterns, and strategic implications

Archetype Comparison

Select two archetypes to compare their financial benchmarks side by side

Bearings

See where your own organization lands

The comparison above shows how the seven archetypes differ. Bearings takes the next step: it places your organization against its archetype peers on each financial measure, so you can see exactly where you stand.

Explore Bearings →

Put this research to work.

Explore the services built on the framework, or get in touch to bring the research to your portfolio.

Explore the Services Bring This to Your Portfolio →

Curious where the research goes next? Be part of where it's headed →

Field Notes

Follow the research as it develops.

A monthly dispatch: findings, patterns, and what the data means for organizations like yours.

Follow the Research